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Wall Street bankers and analysts are wondering these days whether the slump in their businesses is merely temporary due to a slow world economy, or is the change broader and more structural. Golden Sachs, which saw its net income fall 58 percent, thinks it’s a temporary slowdown, all part of a normal business cycle. When that cycle starts moving upward they will more than recoup their losses. Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein was so confident that at an investor conference on November 15, he said that things would go back to normal faster than people think.
But a month later and with lackluster earnings for the 4th quarter, Goldman CFO David Viniar told analysts that it was very difficult to answer if the current downturn was cyclical or secular.
Other banking bigwigs are also unsure on the matter. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon thinks the investment banking sector will improve drastically as the economy starts to pick up pace. On Jan 13 he told reporters that numbers would boom again when things come back. Citigroup CEO, Vikram Pandit, believes otherwise. Speaking to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland he said, “The cycle that brought us here is not the cycle that is going to bring us out of this. It is going to be a new cycle, it is going to be a new paradigm and we are all still searching for it. As we search for it, i