I'd like a fantasy sports monte carlo simulator for use in my various fantasy football leagues. I am active as both a competitor and as a commissioner and I often have questions about league structure and expected outcomes that monte carlo simulations are probably best suited to answer. This product would allow me to create leagues with varying parameters populated with teams of varying attributes, running simulations to establish the likelihood of different outcomes.
For example, suppose there are 12 teams in my league and I am choosing between distributing them in 3 divisions of 4 teams each or 4 divisions of 3 teams each - and want to compare how often a team with a losing record will qualify for the playoffs in either scenario.
Or suppose 11 weeks have passed and there are two weeks left in a league where I am on the bubble for a playoff spot. I'd like to simulate the final two weeks (and the playoffs) to find out how often I am expected to qualify (and to win).
I must be able to:
1) Vary the number of teams and number of divisions
2) Vary teams according to mean weekly score and standard deviation
3) Create or generate game schedules for entire seasons
4) Vary the playoff structure (number of qualifying teams with respect to division winners and wild cards, playoff byes, etc.)
5) Vary how ties are broken for playoff qualification and seeding - possibilities should include overall record, head-to-head record, division record, total points scored in all games, total points scored in division games, even a coin toss
6) Simulate entire seasons from the start, or input actual results and simulate the rest of the season from any weekly point
7) See the game-by-game results of the simulation, so that I can make periodic sanity checks of the output
8) Answer moderately detailed questions (Example - In a 10-team league where each team has the same weekly score mean and standard deviation, where there are two divisons of 5 and both division winners plus two wild cards qualify for a playoff, each team playing division opponents twice and all other teams once in the regular season, how often does a team go undefeated in its division games yet still miss the playoffs?)
1) Complete and fully-functional working program(s) in executable form as well as complete source code of all work done.
2) Installation package that will install the software (in ready-to-run condition) on the platform(s) specified in this bid request.
3) Exclusive and complete copyrights to all work purchased. (No GPL, 3rd party components, etc. unless all copyright ramifications are explained AND AGREED TO by the buyer on the site).
Does not necessarily have to be a stand-alone product - could be an Excel spreadsheet with Visual Basic code and macros, for example. I'm open to suggestions.